It may not be particularly comforting for the Janata leadership to convince itself it has lost the Azamgarh by-election to the Lok Sabha and the Mankapur and Soron seats (scheduled castes) to the state vidhan sabha in the same district solely because of bitter factional infighting in it both in New Delhi and Lucknow. But the truth may well be more bitter. For it is quite possible that the party would have lost the by-elections even if it had managed to put up a facade of unity. One should not be dogmatic on a proposition like this. But it does appear to be a reasonable view that the alliance of the so-called backward castes on which this presently dominant group in the UP Janata party apparently relies could have won the seats for it only if Mrs. Gandhi had not succeeded in reviving the old predominantly Brahmin-Harijan-Muslim alliance which had kept this Congress in office at the Centre and in the Hindi-speaking states for 30 long years, without a break in New Delhi and with a small one in Lucknow and some other state capitals. It could not have worked once the former prime minister had somehow managed to make the Harijans and the Muslims forget the excesses to which they had been exposed during the emergency and to persuade them to return to her camp. It is a moot question whether these communities have turned away from the Janata which they had supported in the critical general election in March 1977 because it has failed to prevent atrocities on the Harijans and communal clashes or they have turned towards the Congress (I) because they feel inclined to trust Mrs. Gandhi despite their bitter experience of her rule during the emergency. Perhaps both these factors are operating in UP as in other Janata-ruled states in the Hindi speaking belt to the party’s detriment.
The results of the by-elections were not a foregone conclusion. Mrs. Gandhi herself did not take a complacent view of them, as is obvious from the way she has campaigned. But no one can genuinely claim to have been taken by surprise by the outcome, not even the most optimistic among the Janata leaders. Most persons interested in such matters have known for months that the ruling party was rapidly losing popularity, that the performance of the state government had failed to impress large sections of the poor communities, that the feuds in the Janata had created the impression that it might not last long and so on. These observers also felt that, by virtue of belonging to the dominant Yadav caste and of having held the seats before March 1977, the Congress candidate, Mr. Chandrajit, might take away a sizable number of Yadav votes from the Janata nominee and thereby affect adversely his prospects. This is partly what has happened. Mr. Bachan Yadav has lost by a margin of over 35,000 votes and Mr. Chandrajit has taken away over 18,000 votes, though it is difficult to say how many of these came from the Yadav community and how many of these voters would have supported Mrs. Kidwai if Mr. Chandrajit was not in the field. But be that as it may, the conclusion is therefore irresistible that the caste arithmetic has gone against the Janata. This must not only cause the party leaders grave concern but also make them review their entire strategy, indeed the character of the party over which they preside.