It is now reasonably clear that the UP chief minister, Mr. Ram Naresh Yadav, has lost the support of a majority of Janata party legislators in the state. Out of 383 legislators, 221 are said to have signed the memorandum asking for his replacement. Even if it is assumed that some of the signatures on the memorandum are not genuine or some of the signatories are willing to be counted on both sides, it is indisputable that the majority in the state Janata legislature party has moved against him. This means that he must go. He cannot save himself by insisting that his detractors requisition a meeting of the JLP and vote him out with the two-thirds majority as required by the party rules, that is the kind of majority which they do not possess. This expedient could have worked if his loss of majority in the JLP was a sudden and temporary phenomenon which he could hope to correct in the course of a couple of days. But that is not the case. The split between the former Jana Sangh and BLD constituents of the Janata in UP apart, Mr. Yadav has never been a particularly popular and respected figure in the party. Indeed, his performance has been so poor that a large number of Janata leaders and supporters have regarded him as a liability for the party. At one stage, last summer, it may be recalled, even Mr. Charan Singh had agreed to his replacement by another BLD leader. Mr. Charan Singh changed his mind at the last minute. But since then Mr. Yadav has not strengthened his
position. He has failed to provide leadership and win the confidence of all constituents in the Janata. He even wavered in his support to Mr. Charan Singh in the latter’s conflict with the Prime Minister, Mr. Desai.
To persuade or force Mr. Yadav to step down is, however, the simpler of the two problems the central leadership of the Janata party faces. The other problem of finding a suitable successor to Mr. Yadav is more intractable. On a superficial view, the solution is simple. The JLP should be left free to choose its leader by consensus, if possible, and by secret ballot, if necessary. But consensus does not appear possible and resort to the other method is likely to aggravate the existing cleavage between the former BLD and the rest in the JLP. The central leadership can take a hand in trying to resolve this problem. Indeed, it is certain that it will, once it has reached agreement on the need to replace Mr. Yadav and secured his resignation. But what solution can it offer? It may well drive the former BLD to desperation if the next chief minister does not come from among its members. And it may face a revolt from the others if it tries to impose a BLD man on them as the new leader. Revival of the tacit BLD-Jana Sangh alliance under a different person in UP can help circumvent these difficulties. But in view of their experience with Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Raj Narain’s campaign against the RSS and Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s repeated offers of support to Mr. Charan Singh and even Mr. Yadav, the former Jana Sangh men must find it rather difficult to align themselves with the BLD.
The Times of India, 7 February 1979