Developments in Bihar, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh leave little room for doubt that the Janata has landed itself in a grave crisis, the gravest since it came into existence two years ago. It is no longer divided among its former constituents, each of them anxious to avoid an outright split. Going by what has happened in Bihar, the party is now polarised between the BLD and the Jana Sangh, with the Congress (O) and the CFD having cast their lot with the latter. Only the Socialist group does not appear to have come down clearly on one side, though in Bihar it has sided with Mr. Karpoori Thakur because of his Lohiaite background and though some of its leaders like Mr. Madhu Limaye have all along been firmly aligned with Charan Singh. It is not yet known whether the CFD headed by Mr. Jagjivan Ram and Mr. HN Bahuguna proposes to break the alliance with the BLD in UP. Indeed, it is far from clear whether they are working in concert or whether each of them is pursuing an independent line in his state. It is equally unclear whether Mr. Charan Singh will maintain the alliance with the CFD in UP after it has aligned itself with the Jana Sangh in Bihar. This uncertainty makes it difficult to assess the possible consequences of Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana on the Centre. But if the CFD is functioning as a coherent unit and the stance adopted by it in Bihar is extended to UP, Mr. Charan Singh will face near isolation in New Delhi, leaving him little choice but to resign from the Union cabinet. Indeed, he may do so irrespective of the CFD’s behaviour in UP. Either way this will not mean a repetition of what happened between last June when he resigned from the government and last February when he was re-inducted into it. This time there can be no question of his returning to the cabinet. In fact, there may not be any mediators at all – last time even the Jana Sangh ministers pressed Mr. Morarji Desai to take him back into the government on honourable terms. As such it may not be easy for him to stay on even in the party. At least he will have little incentive left to do so. And even if the CFD sticks to its alliance with the BLD in UP and for the time being the Centre escapes the consequences of the BLD-Jana Sangh confrontation, the crisis is not likely to blow over. It will continue to simmer.
Events have been moving with the fatal inevitability of a Greek tragedy. As such it is pointless to blame any individual for the crisis. Mr. Charan Singh fired the first shot when within days of his return to the Union cabinet last February, his protégé, the UP chief minister asked for the resignation of some Jana Sangh ministers at his instance. But he was feeling terribly aggrieved because he had convinced himself that the Sangh had let him down in his conflict with Mr. Morarji Desai. He acted more out of anger than out of calculation. Since then the battle has been joined between his BLD group and the Sangh with consequences that are there for all to see. The Sangh could have limited the confrontation to UP and not extended it to Bihar. Similarly, the BLD ministers in Himachal Pradesh could have refrained from resigning for the time being and the Haryana chief minister from asking the governor to dismiss the Jana Sangh ministers. But while restraint is easy to counsel, it is extremely difficult to practise for those engaged in the power game. The Jana Sangh leaders might have held their hand if the organisational elections had not been postponed. For in that case they could have hoped to strengthen their hold on the party organisation and this prospect could have persuaded them to bide their time. But once the elections were put off, they had to pick up the gauntlet thrown at them by Mr. Charan Singh and his aides, especially Mr. Raj Narain and Mr. Madhu Limaye. Else, they would have lost face with their rank and file and their supporters among the people. All that may soon become history. Unless the Janata leaders are able to stop the drift, it may soon be too late to avoid a split. Perhaps it is already too late. Things have been allowed to deteriorate too much for too long.
The Times of India, 20 April 1979