The Soviet Union has dropped hints that it may be willing to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in the near future in case the United States and China are prepared to take steps to reduce tensions in the area. The Soviet ambassador in Tokyo has for instance been quoted by the Kyodo news agency as having told it: “Much depends on the US and China. The present situation can end in near future unless the two countries try to escalate it.”
US officials have not attached much significance to these hints. They are said to believe that the Soviet Union has moved troops far in excess of its requirements in Afghanistan, that it can afford to withdraw some of these without in any way adversely affecting its effective strength in that country and that it will perhaps do so in order to meet international criticism. President Babrak Karmal’s interview last week provided some confirmation for the US assessment. In this interview he said that it was neither necessary nor possible to fix any time limit for the withdrawal of the Soviet forces. “They are here to consolidate the gains of our revolution, protect our land and secure peace in the region. As long as there is danger from outside, the Russians will stay.” Now following the visit of Mr S.K. Singh as Mrs Gandhi’s special envoy to Kabul, the Afghan government has issued a statement which may provide a basis for discussion on the withdrawal of the Russian forces among the countries concerned.
The statement preceded the arrival of the Soviet foreign minister, Mr Gromyko, in New Delhi on a three-day visit. It is possible, therefore, that it was so timed to indicate to the government of India that the Kremlin is not inflexible and is prepared seriously to discuss measures which can help defuse tensions in the area and thus pave the way for the withdrawal of the Soviet forces. Only as the talks proceed will New Delhi know whether the statement has been so timed deliberately. In any case it is important. It says that the Soviet forces in Afghanistan would be withdrawn as soon as the cause which “necessitated the request for such military assistance” ceased to exist under a “credible guarantee.” The important phrase is “credible guarantee.” On the face of it, the present rulers are merely seeking a “credible guarantee” that Pakistan and Iran would not allow their territories to be used for guerilla activities against their regime. Obviously they will ask for such an assurance. But an assurance in order to be credible has to involve some form of international or regional inspection of the two borders.
President Zia-ul-Haq first mooted such a proposal in his talks with the Indian Foreign Secretary, Mr R.D. Sathe, last week. It is immaterial whether or not Kabul has taken its cue from him. The pertinent point is that it has spoken of a “credible guarantee.” The US and its West European allies may not be enthusiastic about Kabul’s formulation. But would they be averse to such a move if it opens the possibility of the Soviet troops being withdrawn in the foreseeable future? It may be worthwhile for New Delhi to explore this possibility first with Mr Gromyko and then with the others. It may not produce quick results. But India has too much at stake to let slip my opportunity that comes its way.