No one can be surprised over the size and sweep of the Congress (I) victory in the vidhan sabha elections. The surprise, indeed, is that the party and its DMK partner have fared so badly in Tamil Nadu and that it has yielded ground to the Akali Dal in Punjab. Neither of these reverses is easy to explain unless we assume that millions of electors in the two states strongly resented Mrs. Gandhi’s decision to dismiss the MGR and Badal ministries. In the case of Tamil Nadu it is also possible that the people did not want Mr. Karunanidhi and his notoriously corrupt band to return to power. But the same electorate had enabled the same DMK with the same unsavoury reputation to trounce the AIADMK led by Mr. MG Ramachandran in the Lok poll only in January. The voters, it is true, make a distinction between elections to the Lok Sabha and the state legislature. That was the rationale behind Mrs. Gandhi’s decision to separate the two in 1971. But seldom has the gap in the voting pattern at such a short interval been so sharp as in Tamil Nadu. The poll has produced two other surprises. First, Mr. Charan Singh’s Lok Dal, a euphemism for a middle peasant caste alliance, has done less well even in its stronghold in western UP than most observers expected. Mr. Charan Singh has undoubtedly lost a great deal in personal stature since July 1979 when he split the Janata solely in pursuance of his ambition to become Prune Minister. But the general calculation was that such things do not matter all that much in the countryside. Perhaps they do. Or perhaps this time the poorer sections and the minorities have been able to exercise their franchise more freely than before. Secondly, the former Jana Sangh, now styling itself as the Bharatiya Janata Party, has forfeited some of its influence in the old Madhya Bharat part of Madhya Pradesh. This used to be its stronghold in the past.
For the rest, there is not much else to say. The voting has generally been low and violence more widespread. But this was expected. Similarly, if the opposition parties are further demoralized as a result of the poll, one can only say that they richly deserve it. The way that they have a splintered and the utter ineptitude they have displayed in recognizing political realities cannot entitle them to a better late. It is being argued that Mr. Sanjay Gandhi has finally emerged as a powerful factor in Indian politics. This is in a sense true. He was able to secure party nomination for many of his Youth Congress (I) supporters and a majority of them have won. After Mrs. Gandhi, he has been the party’s biggest campaigner. He will in all probability have a decisive say in the selection of chief ministers and ministers. But so long as Mrs. Gandhi is around and enjoys the kind of popularity she does, especially among the weaker sections of society, we can only speculate on Mr. Sanjay Gandhi’s power base. Apparently, he has a constituency in the millions of school-leavers and college graduates in search of an identity and a role. But a similar constituency not enabled the Jana Sangh to forge ahead. Thus, as far as we can see, Mrs. Gandhi remains the key to future developments. A great deal will depend on her determination to cope with, and skill in coping with, enormous problems and on her choice of men and women to run the state governments. The poll has given her an opportunity to make her writ run in most states. But it has also added to her burdens. Only time will show whether she has the necessary strength to shoulder them.