It is difficult to say whether the Iranian government has in fact uncovered an attempt at a military coup or whether it has conjured up one. Neither possibility can be dismissed. It is possible that some disaffected air force officers had established contacts with the former Prime Minister, Mr. Shahpur Bakhtiar, who has not made any secret of his plans to overthrow the present regime, and that they were prepared to act. Several developments in the country could have made them impatient – the stoning to death of men and women on the charge of adultery, executions in public squares after summary trials, the sad state of the armed forces, the near-collapse of the economy, the threat to close down universities and end all secular education, the rise of secessionist movements, the increasing hold of the obscurantist ulema, and so on. It is also possible that the United States has been backing Mr. Bakhtiar in his schemes and that the Iraqi government has been prepared to lend him a helping hand. Both Washington and Baghdad have reasons to be extremely unhappy with the present set-up in Teheran, the first because it continues to detain American diplomats as hostages in violation of all rules of international diplomacy, and the second because it continues to incite the Shia majority in Iraq. It can legitimately be argued that so long as Ayatollah Khomeini is around, no sensible person can hope to stage a successful coup. But coup leaders often act rashly. This kind of speculation cannot, however, clinch the issue. A complex power struggle has been going on in Iran and it cannot be ruled out that President Bani-Sadr has found it convenient to invent a coup.
But whether there has been a conspiracy to topple the regime or whether it has invented a conspiracy, this development is bound to further weaken its standing in the world. It has hardly any friends abroad. Most Western leaders have given up the hope that the more rational and moderate Mr. Bani-Sadr might succeed in consolidating his position. They just do not know when any kind of normalcy will return in Teheran. The Russians are equally baffled, though some Comecon countries have stepped up their economic ties with Iran in the wake of Western sanctions. Governments in neighboring Muslim countries look askance at the encouragement Ayatollah Khomeini provides to their own fundamentalists. In fact, governments so opposed to each other as the ones in Riyadh and Baghdad have made common cause against Teheran. Most non-aligned countries do not feel involved with the fate of the so-called Islamic revolution in Iran. More important, the latest discovery or invention is bound to trigger another round of arrests and executions in the armed forces which cannot but further lower their morale and effectiveness. Indeed, one day they may not be able to cope with the separatist movements among the minorities. Then Iran will be ripe for being carved up among rival powers. Such a catastrophe is still not on the horizon. But Iran seems to be moving inexorably towards it.