General Ershad’s plan to move Bangladesh to some form of civilian rule has run into trouble. While he has proposed presidential election in May next in advance of that to Parliament later in the year, opposition parties have demanded that the poll to the legislature should be held first so that it can decide whether the country should retain the presidential form of government or return to a parliamentary one. This is understandable in view of Bangladesh’s history. As is well known, following its independence in 1971, the country opted for the parliamentary system of government under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. When, however, his popularity began to decline as a result of growing corruption and maladministration, he switched over to the presidential system which invested enormous powers in him. He banned all opposition parties, silenced all dissidents on his own, and became a virtual, even if ineffective, dictator. Taking advantage of popular disenchantment with him, a group of army officers organised a coup, killing him and several members of his family in August 1975. This was followed by a series of coups and counter-coups finally leading to the emergence of General Zia-ur Rahman as the boss. He, too, used the presidential system to legitimize his rule. In 1981, he was also assassinated in a coup which otherwise proved abortive. Like General Zia, General Ershad has come to office with the help of the sword and like the former, the latter too is wanting to use the presidential system to give himself some kind of legitimacy. It is, therefore, only natural that opposition parties should baulk at his plan.
This raises the question whether General Ershad will be strong enough to push his scheme through. It is difficult to answer this question at this stage. All that can be said right now is that the opposition to it is going to be quite tough. This much is evident from popular participation in public rallies organised by various opposition parties within days of the lifting of restrictions on political activities. The people in Bangladesh are volatile and highly politicized. Thus opposition to General Ershad’s move can catch on. But the result may be very different from what opposition leaders and their supporters have in view. Like the people, the Bangladesh military officers too are a volatile lot. They can easily get out of hand and order General Ershad to repudiate the present plan and enforce martial law harshly. In case he refuses to fall in line, they can get rid of him. It is a dicey situation. Village and Parishad elections are due soon. These can provide a glimpse into likely future developments. General Ershad clearly wants to use them to build a base for himself. But what if opposition parties decide to stir up trouble and succeed in doing so on a big scale?