For once the Soviet authorities may be telling the truth about President Andropov’s health. The report that he has been shot in the arm by the late Mr. Brezhnev’s 51-year-old son is incredible. The London daily in question has ascribed it to Western intelligence sources. But that cannot by itself lend credence to it. They have not been all that well informed about the goings-on in Moscow. The report says that Mr. Andropov, as head of the KGB, exposed the involvement of members of Mr. Brezhnev’s family in financial scandals and that, therefore, Mr. Yuri Brezhnev bore a grudge against him. But it is precisely because Mr. Andropov presided over that campaign of exposure that he would keep a close watch on Mr. Yuri Brezhnev, making it impossible for the latter to come into his office with a weapon. Only once before has a weapon been said to have been used within the well-guarded Kremlin. That was in the fifties when Mr. Khrushchev himself is believed to have shot the then KGB chief, Mr. Beria, dead. But then almost all CPSU leaders seemed to be united in their resolve to get rid of Mr. Beria. They lived in dread of him and were determined that no one person among them would ever concentrate power in his hands as Stalin had done. Mr. Beria was known to nurse that kind of ambition. Mr. Yuri Brezhnev is a minor functionary – a mere deputy minister – and it is difficult to believe that opponents of Mr. Andropov within the Kremlin would have conspired with him in such a move.
But the publication of this incredible report only underlines the fact that Mr. Andropov’s prolonged absence – he has not been seen in public since last August – has touched off widespread speculation regarding his health. The speculation is wholly justified. The Soviet authorities must be living in a make-believe world of their own if they believe that anyone would buy their story of a cold having kept the Soviet president away from the November 7 parade on the occasion of the 66th anniversary of the revolution. This is the most important annual public event in the Soviet Union and no Soviet leader would wish to stay away from it on account of some minor ailment. All in all, there cannot be any doubt that Mr. Andropov has been struggling with some serious physical problem. It may be premature to say that this has already put his leadership in question. But that is quite possible. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that this may have happened. The first piece of evidence was his long silence over the shooting of the Korean airliner on September 1 despite the propaganda barrage President Reagan unleashed against the Soviet Union on that count. It was unusual that Soviet generals instead should have handled this explosive issue. On top of it has come the Pravda article praising Mr. Brezhnev. This is a clear indication that Mr. Chernenko, the late leader’s choice for succession to himself, and his allies are in a stronger position than they were believed to be some months ago. But it is also an indication that Mr. Yuri Brezhnev has not been involved in an attempt on Mr. Andropov’s life. The article could never have appeared in that case unless Mr. Andropov’s leadership was for all practical purposes over.