Mr. G.M. Shah and his fellow defectors did not have much to commend them even before the current communal orgy in Jammu and Kashmir. Now they stand fully discredited and they must go. The sooner the better. On this point there is universal agreement throughout the length and breadth of the country, including Jammu and Kashmir. The question is how should Mr. Rajiv Gandhi arrange the belated demise of a government that should not have been allowed to come into existence in the first instance? The answer would depend on whether or not he favours an election in the state in the next six months or so. On the face of it, he cannot possibly favour an early election in that state. The reason is obvious. The atmosphere in which the Congress under Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s leadership could sweep the polls in the Jammu region in June 1983 no longer exists. The people in the area, predominantly Hindu, were then feeling highly insecure on account of extremist activities in the adjoining Punjab and were willing to dump the hitherto well-entrenched Bharatiya Janata Party in favour of the Congress in the conviction that Mrs. Indira Gandhi would preserve the unity and integrity of the country. Whatever the case in favour of the Rajiv-Longowal accord, the recent revival of extremist activities in Punjab has caused disillusionment against the Congress in both that state and the neighbouring Jammu region. Also while the people in the Jammu area might have been unhappy with Dr. Farooq Abdullah’s government in 1983, they could not possibly have been so bitter against it as against the Congress-backed Shah set-up. Thus the chances are that the Congress would fare badly in an early poll in Jammu and Kashmir.
If early elections are out, so must be the governor’s rule except as a transitional arrangement. For the governor’s rule accompanied by a dissolution of the state legislature must be followed by a poll within six months. That period can, of course, be extended with the consent of Parliament which is easy enough to obtain for the government in view of the size of its majority. But a delay in the holding of elections is bound to lead to an agitation which would create new problems. The conclusion is obvious. Dr. Abdullah has to be allowed to stage a come-back. Once the Congress withdraws its support from the Shah government and it collapses, most of the defectors would be more than willing to go back to him. That will give him the necessary majority in the state legislature. But it would be a tragedy if he is forced to take them back into his fold for that reason. The Congress leadership can and should help him avoid such a shameful step. It can agree to stay neutral and thereby ensure the survival of his government.
The return of Dr. Abdullah to office in the near future is necessary if some kind of communal peace is to be restored in the valley. Political and communal issues are mixed there and he alone can straddle them as could his father, Sheikh Abdullah. Kashmiri particularism has a strong Islamic component; it takes an openly communal form only when it is frustrated as it has been frustrated since Dr. Abdullah was maneuvered out of office in 1984; therefore the status quo antecannot be restored so long as the Union government does not show respect for the sensibilities of the Kashmiri people; it has to undo what they and indeed millions of other Indians regard as a wrong to them. The paramilitary forces, even with the help of the army, can at best restore a surface calm in the valley. They cannot change the mood of the predominantly Muslim population. Only Dr. Farooq can attempt that task and that too when he is in office. It is difficult to believe that Mr. Rajiv Gandhi and his aides are not cognizant of this reality and of the fact that they do not possess many choices in Kashmir. Why then are they so reluctant to dump Mr. Shah? We do not know the answer. All we can say is that no experienced politician or bureaucrat in Delhi can be in any doubt that Mr. Shah must go and Dr. Abdullah allowed to return to office soon if not immediately.