Only those who are not familiar with the history of the Akali Dal will be surprised by the latest split in it. The Akalis are a fractious lot incapable of holding together for long in office. The divisions in their ranks have been evident from the time of their victory at the polls. The former chief minister, Mr. Parkash Singh Badal, and his supporters, for example, never reconciled themselves to the present chief minister, Mr. Barnala. Indeed, they have been marking time ever since. The police entry into the Golden Temple complex in the wake of the proclamation of Khalistan by the extremists ensconced in the shrine gave the anti-Barnala dissidents the opportunity they had clearly been waiting for. Mr. Barnala had, of course, been left with no other alternative; failure to act in the face of so grave a provocation would have deprived him of the right to rule Punjab in the eyes of his countrymen; Mr. Rajiv Gandhi would have found it extremely difficult to continue to support him; a show of weakness on his part would also have added to the demoralization of the Hindus in Punjab. But even if he had once again held his hand and allowed the extremists to remain in control of the Golden Temple complex, he could at best have bought a brief respite. The Badal-Tohra group would have struck at him on some other pretext.
Just as in the case of the police entry into the Golden Temple complex, Mr. Barnala appears to have used his powers as president of the Akali Dal to expel the three former ministers – Mr. Amrinder Singh, Mr. Sukhjinder Singh and Mr. Sucha Singh Chottepur – only because he had been left with no other choice. For, Mr. Badal’s statements leave little room for doubt that the dissidents were trying to wean away other Akali legislators to their side. It is, therefore, pointless to argue that the Punjab chief minister should have been a little more patient and tried to avoid an open split. He could not have succeeded, however hard he might have tried. He had to confront the challenge and it is as well that he has chosen to do so when he still commands the support of a significant majority in the Akali legislature party.
In fairness, we have to wait for the consequences of the Akali split to manifest themselves. But going by our past experience of Akali politics, it will be a surprise if it does not further reduce Mr. Barnala’s capacity to restore law and order in the state. His position has been unenviable from the very start of his tenure as chief minister. While he has been harassed by powerful dissident leaders such as Mr. Badal and the former SGPC chief, Mr. Tohra, he has not been assured of the loyalty of some of his own ministers. Mr. Amrinder Singh, for example, openly canvassed support against Mr. Barnala in New Delhi where his former patrons occupy top positions. The speaker, Mr. Ravi Inder Singh, who has now openly sided with the dissidents, too did not make a secret of his opposition to Mr. Barnala.
This factional struggle in the Akali legislature party has inevitably acted as a constraint on the chief minister in dealing with the extremists in control of the Golden Temple complex and some other gurdwaras. Even so the formal split is likely to add to his inhibitions. It is a reasonably safe bet that if the extremists reoccupy the holy shrine in Amritsar, as they are already trying to do, Mr. Barnala will be even more wary of taking action against them than he has been in the past. He will be extremely reluctant to risk another split which will leave him no choice but to resign as chief minister. As it is, he is in a minority in the legislature as a whole; he cannot afford to be in a minority among Sikh legislators elected on the Akali ticket. In that eventuality, he will have forfeited his right to speak for the Sikhs. The impact of the likely erosion in the self-confidence of Mr. Barnala as a result of the split on the morale of the administration, especially the police force, can easily be imagined. The ugly scene in Punjab has taken another turn for the worse.
It will be evasive to believe that Mr. Barnala and his Akali supporters alone are on trial in the state. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi’s strategy is also on trial. Indeed, the main issue in Punjab is the viability of the Prime Minister’s approach to Punjab as it has unfolded since the accord with the late Sant Longowal last June. Mr. Barnala’s precarious hold on the office of chief minister with the help of Mr. Gandhi’s gift of Chandigarh and the Congress party’s support in the legislature will not ensure the success of this approach. But further defections from the chief minister’s depleted ranks will confirm its collapse. And this time a quick fix is not even a theoretical possibility. The country is in for a hot and bloody summer in Punjab.