The impression has spread that the government will soon go in for a by-election in the Allahabad parliamentary constituency and that Mr Amitabh Bachchan will once again be the Congress candidate. There are good reasons for this impression. But these cannot be said to clinch the issue. For all we know, the party leadership is still testing the waters at the Sangam. In any case, the decision rests with one person. Mr Rajiv Gandhi, and possibly two, the other being Mr Bachchan. So no one else can be sure whether or not the reports in question are accurate. Also Mr Rajiv Gandhi can change his mind, even if right now he is inclined to field Mr Bachchan in Allahabad. But be that as it may, it is, on the face of it, rather surprising that Mr Bachchan should offer himself as a candidate for re-election to the Lok Sabha and it is truly extraordinary that Mr Rajiv Gandhi should be willing to go along. Mr Bachchan resigned his seat in the Lok Sabha in a certain context. The context has not changed. The evidence of his brother, Mr Ajitabh Bachchan, having bought a flat in Switzerland had not been published the day he sent in his resignation. But that does not detract from the fact that he resigned in view of the charges of FERA violations against his brother. The brother has not yet been cleared of the charges. The inquiry is still on; or so at least the government says. Mr Ajitabh Bachchan has recently claimed to have become an NRI some two years ago. This may help him get over the “little difficulty” of the flat. But that has not happened so far. In plain terms, if Mr Amitabh Bachchan found his position as MP untenable because his brother faced the charge of having violated FERA, he cannot now argue that an electoral verdict in his favour will settle that issue. Such a view strikes at the very concept of the rule of law. And what if he loses? Will he then acknowledge that his brother (and by implication he too) is guilty of FERA violations?
There is, however, some logic in Mr Bachchan’s lack of logic. He has not much to lose if he is defeated and a great deal to gain if he wins. For while defeat will not add greatly to the loss of face he has suffered in the public esteem, victory will give the image of being a giant-killer, because his adversary will be none other than Mr VP Singh. But the same cannot be said for Mr Rajiv Gandhi. On the contrary, he has nothing to gain from the proposed move and a great deal to lose. It is almost certain that Mr VP Singh will not contest the Allahabad seat if Mr Bachchan is not the Congress candidate. If he does not contest in Allahabad, he is highly unlikely to do so anywhere else. His absence from the Lok Sabha should suit Mr Rajiv Gandhi. That, however, is a relatively minor issue. The central point is that if Mr Bachchan is the Congress nominee in Allahabad, this will not be seen to be a contest between him and Mr VP Singh, but one between Mr Rajiv Gandhi and Mr VP Singh. And this is not a fight the Prime Minister can win, whatever the formal outcome. If Mr VP Singh wins, Mr Rajiv Gandhi will have virtually lost a referendum on his right to rule; for there can be no question that the by-election will assume the character of such a referendum. And if Mr VP Singh loses, it will be universally assumed that the government has thoroughly rigged the election.
It is difficult to appreciate the logic behind Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s move to raise the stakes in Allahabad and go in for a wrestling match with Mr VP Singh, unless he has been convinced by such advisers as he possesses that a defeat in Allahabad will finish Mr VP Singh’s career. But if he has allowed himself to be so convinced, it will be another case of poor political judgment. Mr VP Singh has not cast himself in the role of a giant-killer, nor do the Indian people see him in that role. He is seen to be an honest man who is fighting against corruption in high places against impossible odds. This image of a simple and good man battling Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s well-heeled battalions can only be reinforced by his contest with Mr Bachchan. The style of the two campaigns will almost certainly ensure that. As for the outcome, if Mr VP Singh wins, as is likely, it will be widely seen as the triumph of good over evil; and if he loses, it will be generally regarded as a setback in an ongoing struggle against evil. To avoid unnecessary misunderstanding, we might add that we are not pronouncing on Mr Bachchan, not to speak of Mr Rajiv Gandhi. Indeed, the readers of this newspaper would know we do not react to events in such simplified terms. In this case too, we are doing no more than take note of the psychological reality and drawing what we regard as the logical inference. Which is that Mr Rajiv Gandhi should, in his own interest, not raise the stakes in Allahabad and convert a by-election there into a one-to-one combat. His strength is organizational since the Congress remains a considerable organisation, despite all that has happened in the past two decades. Mr VP Singh’s sole asset is his persona] reputation; he has no organisation to back him. He should be seeking a combat with the Prime Minister, and not the other way round.