Suddenly, there has been a spate of reports in western newspapers to the effect that there is widespread concern in the Far East and South-East Asia over the possible re-emergence of Japan as a great military power. Apparently, there is some substance in these reports. The head of the Japanese self-defence agency has visited some of these countries in order to reassure their governments that Japan is interested only in its own security and that too, in continuing cooperation with the United States. Even so, it is extremely difficult to say how widespread is this concern.
For, miniscule groups can make the necessary amount of noise. In any event, the more relevant question is: what has happened recently to cause this concern? True, the Japanese self-defence agency has asked for a six per cent increase in its budget allocation which, if granted, would raise the country’s defence expenditure to $16 billion, to make it the third-largest in the world, that is next only to that of the United States and the Soviet Union. But no one can possibly argue that a six per cent increase in Japan’s defence allocations would mark a quantitative jump in the country’s military capabilities. Surely this cannot justify the outcry that Japan has decided to rearm itself in a big way. And it should be self-evident that the days of old-style imperialism, when a country needed to occupy other lands in search of markets and raw materials are gone forever; that since Japan has done remarkably well in the post-war period on the strength of the skills of its people, it cannot possibly wish to return to its bad old ways; and that if it comes to acquire a measure of political and military clout, it can be depended upon to use it wholly in the cause of peace.
Simultaneously, there are also reports of concern in South-East Asia over China’s plans and intentions. As it happens, China has forcibly occupied the Spratly islands, which Vietnam claims belong to it. The Chinese claims to the islands are, to put it rather mildly, not well-founded. But that is less pertinent than the fact that it has used its naval might to enforce its claims. This must set alarm bells ringing in South-East Asia, especially since China’s military capabilities are bound to increase as it modernizes its economy and its armed forces. China’s neighbours would also be aware of the shift in its stand on Japan’s defence measure from one of acceptance, and even encouragement, some years back, to one of criticism. It is, of course, to early to assess the possible implications of these developments in India. Indeed, in view of the dramatic changes Mr Gorbachev has initiated in the Soviet Union, it will be a long time before the likely shape of the world in the nineties begins to crystallize. But our policy-makers need to be attentive to these stirrings.