It is as easy to exaggerate the importance of the vote in the UP Janata legislature party on Thursday as to underestimate it. In truth we are just not in a position to assess the significance of this event. For, that will depend on the future conduct of the rival leaders which at the moment we cannot predict. The vote has by and large gone along expected lines. Mr. Ram Naresh Yadav was expected to lose and he has lost. Similarly, while the dissidents have secured some votes less than they had claimed, they have vindicated their basic claim that they are in a majority in the JLP. But the vote has settled nothing except the future of Mr. Yadav himself. For, if Mr. Charan Singh digs in his toes and insists that he will not accept another person as UP’s chief minister, the other constituents will be hard put to it to resist him for long unless they are prepared for a mid-term poll which clearly they are not. For all we know, Mr. Charan Singh may not prove so intransigent; he may well be satisfied if the other Janata constituents accept some other nominee of his. But how can one be sure? The dissidents have claimed that they are in a position to elect a leader who is acceptable to all groups in the party. But that, on the face of it, appears to be a tall claim. For, implicit in it is the statement that the BLD, which with its socialist and Muslim Majlis allies constitutes almost half the Janata legislature party in the state, is already reconciled to the removal of Mr. Ram Naresh Yadav and that it has in fact chosen a successor, who is acceptable to those who have brought down Mr. Yadav. This may turn out to be the case. But no one can say for certain that it will.
Mr. Yadav and his supporters have conducted their campaign in connection with the confidence vote along ideological lines. They have made it out to be a struggle between
forces of secularism and democracy on the one hand and of reaction and communalism, as allegedly represented by the RSS-Jana Sangh, on the other. Indeed, the UP Janata government has joined the Kerala government in banning RSS drills in public institutions. Two important constituents of the Janata with impeccable secular credentials, the former Congress (O) and the Congress For Democracy, have, however, not bought the BLD’s platform so far. But can one be sure that some of the legislators belonging to these groups will not be tempted to do so? Broadly the Jana Sangh has pursued a conciliatory approach towards all other groups in the Janata both at the Centre and in the states. It, for instance, played a key role in the reinduction of Mr. Charan Singh into the cabinet. Essentially it has been guided by the desire to do nothing which can destabilise any Janata government anywhere. But its acceptability remains low to all other groups in the Janata. Rightly or wrongly, they are suspicious of it and are inclined to take the view that RSS men are infiltrating into key institutions like schools and the police. Thus while Mr. Charan Singh may have lost the first round, the battle may still go to him. That outcome is at least not inconceivable, especially if Mr. Charan Singh plays his cards with greater skill than he has shown in the past.
The Times of India, 16 February 1979