Unity moves among the Akalis appear to be gathering momentum. Among those in office, Mr. Balwant Singh, finance minister, has taken the initiative. While it is difficult to say with certainty whether he has done so with or without the chief minister, Mr. Surjit Singh Barnala’s agreement, it looks as if he is acting on his own. For implicit in his activities is a move to dump Mr. Barnala and project himself as the next chief minister. There is an irony in all this. For it was Mr. Barnala’s refusal to downgrade Mr. Balwant Singh from number two to number three position in the cabinet that blocked Mr. Parkash Singh Badal’s entry into the government and sowed the seeds of the Akali split that finally materialized last May. But such things are common in politics, especially Akali politics.
On the other side of the factional divide, most of the running is being done by Mr. Amrinder Singh, former Maharaja of Patiala, and Mr. Ravi Inder Singh, former speaker of the Punjab Vidhan Sabha. Mr. Amrinder Singh recently wrote a letter to Mr. Badal drawing his attention to certain statements by some leading members of his group in favour of terrorist activities and dissociating himself from such statements. Mr. Ravi Inder Singh is also a moderate who is not known to have said or done anything to encourage the extremists and the terrorists in the state. But that cannot give them the necessary credentials. If they are able to promote serious discussions on reuniting the two Akali factions, it is because they have the support of Mr. Badal and Mr. Gurcharan Singh Tohra, the former SGPC president. Of the two, Mr. Tohra is the more influential and also more undependable. Right now, he obviously wants to get rid of Mr. Barnala as chief minister and president of the other Akali Dal. In the pursuit of that objective, he is apparently prepared to accept Mr. Balwant Singh as the next Akali chief minister. But either Mr. Tohra regards it as a temporary arrangement or he is convinced that Mr. Balwant Singh will do his bidding.
Mr. Tohra is by far the cleverest Akali leader, he possesses truly extraordinary manipulative skills; he could play a significant role in helping the Centre restore normalcy in Punjab if he was so inclined. But there is nothing in his record in recent years which can inspire any kind of confidence in his bona fides. For the sake of convenience, Mr. Badal cannot match Mr. Tohra’s capacity for manipulating fellow Akalis and through them the Sikh masses. Mr. Badal’s own well-known ambition to get back into the chief minister’s office must produce, in course of time, a clash between him and Mr. Balwant Singh in case the latter succeeds Mr. Barnala. In any case, even the two together cannot outwit Mr. Tohra.
Mr. Rajiv Gandhi and his aides must be aware of, and sensitive to, these implications of the Akali unity moves. So they cannot possibly be keen on Mr. Barnala’s exit as chief minister which for the other group is a necessary condition for unity. Even if they are not impressed by his capacity to deal with the extremists and the terrorists, they cannot trust a new set-up in Chandigarh headed except in name by Mr. Tohra. The noises Mr. Balwant Singh has been making recently perhaps in a bid to make himself acceptable to the Badal-Tohra faction can be ignored. He has reasons to be grateful to the Centre and show a spirit of accommodation towards it if he in fact takes over as chief minister. But he will not be his own master as chief minister, he will need constantly to ensure that he does not displease Mr. Tohra. This assessment, if New Delhi shares it, must place it in a cruel dilemma. It cannot prop up Mr. Barnala if the two Akali factions come together and decide to dump him, as in all probability they will. It also cannot be easy for it to decide either to give the Tohra-Badal faction an opportunity to prove their protestations, or to reimpose President’s rule on the state, however strong its distrust of Mr. Tohra. Indeed, the situation is extremely complex and only the naïve can believe that a clear-cut decision is possible. In the circumstances, it might be advisable for New Delhi to await moves by the Akalis and the five head priests who are once again playing politics, on the face of it, on Mr. Tohra’s behalf.