The outcome of the general election in West Germany was not in doubt at any stage of the campaign. It was obvious from the very start that the leader of the opposition Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union alliance, Herr Strauss, was no match for Herr Schmidt. The right-wing mercurial Bavarian leader concentrated his attack on the chancellor’s foreign policy. He could not have chosen a worse target. Herr Schmidt’s approach not only took care of the national interest but also accorded with the popular mood. Placed as it is, West Germany has little choice but to maintain reasonably good relations with the Soviet Union and the West German people have been mature enough to recognise this reality. Herr Strauss’s charge that Herr Schmidt had weakened West Germany’s alliance with the United States was, of course, not justified, though it is well known that the chancellor does not have much respect for President Carter. As such it could have carried conviction only if a substantial section of the West German electorate did not share Herr Schmidt’s low esteem of Mr Carter. Unfortunately for Herr Strauss, it shared this assessment. Similarly, Herr Strauss’s campaign against Herr Schmidt’s decision to preserve detente with the Soviet Union despite Moscow’s military intervention in Afghanistan could have swayed votes in his favour only if the Kremlin had acted rashly in Poland. Indeed, Soviet military intervention in Poland could have sealed Herr Schmidt’s fate and put Herr Strauss in the chancellor’s office.
This is not to suggest that Herr Strauss would have been better equipped to cope with the resulting situation in Europe. On the contrary, dangerous situations call for cool nerves which Herr Schmidt possesses and calm and reconsidered decisions of which he has shown himself capable, especially in recent months. But while detente in Europe has survived Soviet intervention in far away Afghanistan without too much difficulty, it would have inevitably come under great strain in case the Kremlin had decided to use its tanks to put down the striking Polish workers. That would have caused consternation in Western Europe and made a jingoist leader like Herr Strauss look attractive to the electors in West Germany.
While barring some rash Soviet action in Poland the victory of the ruling alliance was virtually certain, the Social Democratic Party’s junior partners, the Free Democrats, have fared much better than generally expected. Their vote has risen from 7.9 per cent in 1976 to 10.6, the largest since 1961 when they had polled 12.6 per cent of the total vote. This is a clear indication that the West German people do not want more socialism.